This project seeks to advance applied research on climate policies in a way that both responds to and helps inform recent California climate policy developments. Despite the program's successes and recent renewal, California’s Cap-and-Invest (C&I) program faces continued scrutiny regarding its long-term viability and economic impact. emLab will provide timely, objective evidence to evaluate the program’s role in meeting state goals and its interaction with global energy markets that clarifies the economic and climate consequences of evolving regulatory trajectories.

The primary goal of this project is to provide a rigorous, objective analytical foundation to inform the 2026 rulemaking of California’s Cap-and-Invest (C&I) program. In a period of heightened political sensitivity regarding energy costs, we aim to "cut through the noise" by establishing a common base of facts that are both technically credible and accessible to policymakers and the public. By developing materials that clarify the environmental and economic trade-offs of various regulatory trajectories, we will reveal the value of the C&I program for California’s long-term climate and economic future. Key Objectives: ● Quantify the value of California’s C&I Program in achieving California’s 2045 carbon neutrality goals. Specifically, we hope to answer the question: What are the economic and climate consequences of delaying California's rule making on cap-and-invest? What would happen to state revenues? 2 ● Drawing from our prior research, demonstrate how auction revenue can be used to lower electricity prices for households across California ● Highlight the co-benefits associated with California’s C&I program, such as the potential to reduce localized criteria pollutants and improve air quality. ● Investigate the role of California’s climate policy amidst global oil price shocks and answer: With global oil prices driven by current political events, what is the role of California's climate policy on mitigating the impact of global oil price shocks? How has cap-and-invest dampened these impacts?