In recent years, global fishing vessel detections have declined in many regions, likely reflecting a
combination of intentional policy interventions and unintentional economic, ecological, and technological
changes. Understanding why fishing activity has been declining over time is important to informing future
sustainable fisheries management measures. This project takes the first step towards answering this
question by characterizing potential drivers of reduced fishing activities and forming hypotheses on key
drivers. Subsequent project phases could build on this work to develop a causal framework to rigorously
test which factors are truly dictating effort, allowing us to definitively understand why these changes are
occurring.

Research Activities and Objectives

In this first phase of work, we will conduct a comprehensive review and synthesis of candidate drivers of
reduced fishing activity, drawing from economic, ecological, management, and technological domains.
Potential drivers include, but are not limited to:
● Economic factors (e.g., fuel price increases, subsidy reform, market instability,
consolidation and efficiency improvements, declining marginal costs of aquaculture)
● Ecological dynamics (e.g., stock recovery under satisficing behavior, stock collapse under
profit-maximizing behavior)
● Management interventions (e.g., effort limits, management reforms post-mid-1990s, marine
protected area expansion)
● Monitoring, control, and surveillance improvements (e.g., increased transparency enabling
more effective enforcement)