In close collaboration with TNC, emLab will evaluate the various economic implications, environmental outcomes, and social considerations of integrating NWL into California policy. Using the suite of policy scenarios that have already been developed by TNC, emLab will develop a basic modeling framework that can simulate several key policy scenarios, identify how effective these policies might be under different market conditions, and forecast potential outcomes. This will provide valuable insights into the tradeoffs and opportunities associated with each policy scenario. 

TNC will then socialize our initial findings with local and state partners to identify which policy resonates in the context of existing conversations and other emerging policies. In addition, emLab will also identify potential incentives and political conditions that may encourage the adoption of one policy over another. Both will inform how these models are designed, how policy scenarios are evaluated, and which policy is likely to be the most effective. As TNC and emLab receive feedback from partners, emLab may model new policy scenarios as well as tweak the modeling framework to capture other aspects of ecosystem processes and legal mechanisms highlighted by our collaborators. 

Ultimately, emLab will use supply and demand curves to determine which policy scenarios will be most effective in capping terrestrial emissions from California's NWL given stakeholder priorities. This initial evaluation and conceptualization exercise will also highlight how we might incorporate empirical models (e.g., BioSum, econometric models of land-use change) to estimate carbon sequestered, management costs, and other potential co-benefits.